Monthly report updated, www.indianmarketview.com

Just updated monthly report on our site. Kindly visit www.indianmarketview.com

Last month we released report on Mentha oil and Gold. Mentha oil skyrocketed and made a high of 1146.80 but unable to sustain and crashed vertically. We recommended buying around 1030 with stop loss of 980 for the upside target of 1070 and then to 1180—1250. It missed our second level target of 1180 and now trading around 985.

On the other hand, we recommended selling in Gold around 27200—27300 with stop loss of 27600 for the downside target of 26200—25800. Our sell call proven great and it crashed vertically. It made a low of 25871 and now trading around 25950. Metal segment dropped down vertically on the urge of global concern. Daily drama from Greece, slowdown pace and fall in China’s stock market along with fear of US interest rate hike crate panic in metal segment.

Dollar index is continue to move upside and took support from lower levels. Dollar Index is having support at 95.40 and resistance at 97.50. Weekly close above 97.50 will take to 99—100.50+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 95.50 again. Close below 95.50 will take to 93.00—92.00 mark in days to come.

On MCX division, Gold is now having support at 25800 and resistance at 26400. Two consecutive closes + weekly close below 25800 will see further panic till 25500—25200 and then to 24800 mark. On Comex division, Close below $1140 will see panic in Gold till $1125—$1110 and then to $1080 while it hurdle intact at $1170. Silver too slipped in line with gold and we will expect that panic remain continue in bullion. Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity but trade with levels only.

In the month of July, we have seen vertical crash in base metal too. Nickel tested four years low while all major commodities are trading near five months low on China’s concern but base metal moved higher after news that Greece has been accepted 35 billion Euro as a bailout package along with it getting recovery in Chinese stock market after crash of more than 25%. Recent low is crucial in all base metals and we will expect range bound trading in next 2-3 trading weeks.

In our last report, we recommended selling in Crude oil around 3850 with stop loss of 4000.  Crude oil unable to breach its resistance level of 4000 and crashed vertically to 3226 and now trading around 3350 mark. Crude oil has support at 3280 and resistance at 3460. Two consecutive closes 3280 will see free fall till 3050—2900 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3460 again. Further upside rally seen only close above 3460 mark. Traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation.

On NCDEX division, we have witnessed range bound trading in Agri commodities though traded with positive bias amid uncertainty of rain in Malwa and Rajasthan region. Still sentiments are alive and top of 2015 will be crucial or can say that act as major hurdle in near terms but trade with levels only. Soybean took the support level of 3400 and bounced back to 3646 mark and now trading around 3500. 3400 act as support and 3650 act as resistance. Two consecutive closes below 3400 will see panic till 3250—3100 and then to 2900 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3650 again. Two consecutive closes above 3650 will see further upside rally till 3730—3780 and then to 3850+ mark in days to come while Soyaref has support at 565 and resistance at 590—605. Here we will expect range bound trading in edible oil as all depend on monsoon. If there is sufficient rain in next few days then it gives life to the crop else fundamental have to check. Chana too bounced back from lower levels and now trading around 4480 mark. Chana has support at 4350 and resistance at 4600. Looks weak and could test its support level of 4350. Two consecutive closes below 4350 will see further panic till 4200—4050 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 4600 again. Two consecutive closes + weekly close above 4600 will see further upside rally till 4730—4780 and then to 4850 mark in days to come. Chana is forming wedge pattern on daily chart. Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation.  Recently, government takes decision of stock limit in Chana to control prices and black marketing but due to some reason decision released. On other commodities like, Dhaniya, Jeera, Turmeric, Wheat and Mentha oil to remain sluggish for next two to three trading weeks and we will expect range bound trading, So traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation.

Monthly pick- Soyabean

Soyabean is trading in a range of 3400—3650 and currently trading around 3500. Soybean Aug futures settled on negative note on Wednesday and closed down by 1.41% taking clues from the international market on improving weather in US. However, reports on deficient rainfall in central and western India caps further loss. Due to more than normal rainfall in June, the soybean planting in central Indian has been encouraging.

 

 

After vertical crash from 4309 to 3408, we have seen range bound trading in Soyabean in the range of 3400—3700 and currently trading around 3500. Soyabean (Aug) contract has support at 3400 and resistance at 3650—3730. It is forming wedge pattern on daily chart and waiting for clear direction. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 3400 will see free fall in Soyabean till 3120—3050 and then to 2900 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3650—3730 again. Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 3730 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 3730 will see sharp upside rally till 3900—4050+ mark in days to come. This happen only if there is any fundamental change else it is unlikely to breach its resistance level in near terms. MACD and RSI too indicates negativity on daily chart along with it trade below 21 DEMA and 55 DEMA which is at 3581 and 3681 respectively.

Recommendation

Traders can sell and accumulate Soyabean around 3580—3650 with stop loss of 3730 for the downside target of 3400 and then to 3120—3050—2900.

 

Monthly pick- Natural Gas

We have seen very long consolidation phase in Natural gas in the range of 155—200 and now trading around 180. U.S. natural gas prices rose to a four-week high on Tuesday, as forecasts for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the U.S. boosted summer cooling demand for the fuel. Updated weather forecasting models pointed to warmer-than-normal temperatures across many regions through July 24. Forecasts originally called for mild summer weather during the period. Hotter-than-normal summer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to cool homes, boosting demand for natural gas. Natural gas accounts for about a quarter of U.S. electricity generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 91 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for an increase of 86 billion and following a build of 69 billion cubic feet in the preceding week.

 

 

Natural gas is now forming rounding bottom on daily chart and taking strength from lower levels. It has support at 172—163 and resistance at 190. It looks positive on charts and could test its resistance level of 190. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 190 will see further upside rally in Natural gas till 220—228 and then to 240+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 172—168 and then to 163 mark but chances are unlikely to breach its support level of 163 in near terms. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 163 mark. Cross over of MACD above ‘0’ line and RSI above ‘50’ showing strength on charts along with it trade above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 178 and 177.40 respectively. With seeing fundamental and technical, we recommend buying in natural gas in panic with strict stop loss of 163 on closing basis

Recommendation

 

Traders can buy Natural gas around 178—172 with stop loss of 163 on closing basis for the initial target of 220—228—240+

More will be updated soon. Trade with levels only!!

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