Nifty Recovery Likely, Small Cap And Bank Nifty Outperform

Indian Market Outlook:

Indian Benchmark Index Nifty saw a volatile range bound movement between 8024-7953 yesterday. Yesterday being the last day of November F&O series, volatility was high as expected. The major Indian Indices namely Nifty, Bank Nifty and the Small Cap Index are all trading at a major support level. Nifty spot is testing its Brexit low of 7927 made on 24 June 2016. Whereas Bank Nifty is showing a comparative strength since it has not even touched its Trump’s low of 18143 made on Nov 9 where the Brexit low was 16946. Small Cap has also joined the group outperforming the benchmark Nifty. Small Cap has tested its Trump low of 5427 and is already up by 200 points from the lows. This shows that the broader market has already started to pick up momentum and an upside rally is just around the corner. We should expect a buying in the December series as RBI might slash interest rates by 50 basis points triggering a short covering rally. Important resistance for Nifty lies at 8140, any meaningful rally would be above this level.

FII have been net sellers on the cash markets but past two days there has been some buying in NSE Small Cap Index which has risen up by 200 points from low of 5408. However, FII have ended the month of November with a net selling in the cash market worth Rs. 17023 Cr, the highest single month sell figures for the year 2016.

Nifty Dec Futures is expected to open at 8031 as per SGX Nifty at 8:30 am IST, which is 21 points above its previous close of 8010.

FII Monthly Cash Activity for 2016

Month Rs Cr
Jan -14356
Feb -12513.1
Mar 24201.51
Apr 3056.28
May -186.61
Jun 3957.95
Jul 10121.56
Aug 8778.01
Sep 3329.62
Oct -5355.76
Nov -17023.37

FII’s have sold shares worth Rs. 17023.37 Cr in the month of Nov. Such heavy selling was experienced in the month of Jan, 2016 to the tune of Rs. 14356 Cr and it stretched into the month of February where FII’s were sellers worth Rs. 12513 Cr and Nifty reacted negatively by ending February down 550 points from Jan close.The current selling also signals an extended weakness in the markets.

Top 3 option strikes for Nov Expiry

Call Put
OI (Contracts) Strike Strike OI (Contracts)
61736 8100 8000 45214
66523 8200 7900 38249
62717 8700 7800 58546

TThe above table shows that for the month of November, heavy Open Interest in call stands at 8200 strike and in Put at 8000 strike. As signaled the expiry closed at 8165.

Open Interest Index F&O and Cash Segment Activity

Open Interest Index F&O and Cash Segment Activity

In cash segment, last trading day, FII have sold shares worth Rs.2010.20 Cr and DII bought shares worth Rs. 1648 Cr. A combined sell of Rs. 361.93 Cr. For this expiry, FII and DII together are sellers worth Rs. 1936.20 Cr.

In Index Options, last trading day, FII have bought 259490 contracts, above its 1 year average of 18280 contracts. Pro have bought 72181 contracts, above its 1 year average of 27670 contracts. Combined there has been a net buy of 331671 contracts, above its 1 year average of 39000 contracts. For the current expiry, FII and Pro combined are net sellers of 172101 contracts.

In Index Futures, last trading day, FII have sold 48538 contracts, above its 1 year average of 9706 contracts. Pro have bought 31935 contracts, above its 1 year average of 4903 contracts. Combined there has been a net sell of 16603 contracts above its 1 year average of 9401 contracts. For the current expiry, FII and Pro combined are net sellers of 84197 contracts.

International Market Morning Update:

International markets remain in the uptrend. S&P Futures is trading firmly above 2200 and German Dax continues its trading in a range of 10650-10800. The divergence between developed and emerging markets also continues, where the latter is weak because of short term rise in US Interest rate in December.

In today’s trading Japan’s Nikkei is trading up by 0.77%. Markets await policy disclosure after Trump takes oath on January 20th 2017. Major event going forward is the US rate hike likely to be happening in the December’s FED policy meet.

Index Country 1D % Change
Developed Markets
Europe DAX INDEX Germany 0.15
EURO STOXX 50 INDEX Eurozone 0.3
CAC 40 INDEX Paris 0.22
FTSE 100 INDEX London -0.08
Asia NIKKEI 225 INDEX Japan 0.94
ASX 200 INDEX Australia 0.013
Emerging Markets
America BOVESPA INDEX Brazil -0.95
Asia JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX Jakarta -2.003
HANG SENG INDEX China -0.3
SET INDEX Thailand -0.42
PHILIPPINE STOCK INDEX Philippine 0.54
KOSPI INDEX Korea -0.64
STRAITS TIMES INDEX Singapore 0.14

Data as on 24th November 2016. The % change is taken from previous day’s close.

List of Top Gainers and Losers on 24th November 2016

TOP GAINER TOP LOSER
SYMBOL LTP %CHANGE SECTOR   SYMBOL LTP %CHANGE SECTOR
ADFFOODS 151.65 10.89 FMCG- FOOD MANAPPURAM 73.55 -5.03 FINANCIAL SERVICES- NBFC
SATIN 406.35 9.99 FINANCIAL SERVICES RAMCOIND 180.75 -3.34 REALTY- HOUSEHOLD
RBL 997.7 9.85 AUTO- AUTOMOBILES AND AUTO PARTS EDELWEISS 90.7 -3.2 FINANCIAL SERVICES
SARDAEN 220.65 9.12 METALS AND MINING CHOLAFIN 961.3 -2.92 FINANCIAL SERVICES- NBFC
DEEPIND 236.5 5.49 ENERGY-OIL & GAS OUDHSUG 103.7 -2.9 FMCG- SUGAR
VLSFINANCE 50.75 5.29 FINANCIAL SERVICES MUTHOOTFIN 288 -2.8 FINANCIAL SERVICES- NBFC
TIRUMALCHM 654.15 5 CHEMICALS IGARASHI 699.4 -2.75 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS
BHAGERIA 316.6 4.99 CHEMICALS HEIDELBERG 110 -2.74 CEMENT
IGPL 211.8 4.98 CHEMICALS RAIN 47.9 -2.64 CEMENT
GAEL 84.45 4.78 FMCG- FOOD JKCEMENT 663.85 -2.58 CEMENT
STCINDIA 111.9 4.04 DIVERSIFIED WSTCSTPAPR 129.5 -2.48 PAPER
SONASTEER 50.8 3.46 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS TUBEINVEST 585 -2.31 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS
PRICOL 86.25 3.29 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS INDIANB 239.45 -2.27 BANKS-PSU
SHARDACROP 392.9 3.29 CHEMICALS CUB 131.25 -2.27 BANKS-PRIVATE
JBMA 226.5 3.26 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS DCBBANK 106.25 -2.25 BANKS-PRIVATE
MINDAIND 299.55 2.76 AUTO- AUTOMOBILES AND AUTO PARTS SHRIRAMCIT 1837.5 -2.05 FINANCIAL SERVICES- NBFC
KSL 289.85 2.73 METALS AND MINING BANCOINDIA 172.1 -2.02 AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS
TRIDENT 53.1 2.71 TEXTILES AND APPAREL WHIRLPOOL 920.9 -1.97 REALTY- HOUSEHOLD
PRAKASH 48.4 2.65 METALS AND MINING IDFCBANK 68.05 -1.95 BANKS-PRIVATE
ORIENTPPR 67.95 2.57 REALTY- HOUSEHOLD OBEROIRLTY 269.05 -1.93 REALTY
MOTILALOFS 496.65 2.53 FINANCIAL SERVICES BAJAJELEC 214.2 -1.9 REALTY- HOUSEHOLD
GMDCLTD 102.7 2.44 METALS AND MINING PHILIPCARB 218.05 -1.85 CHEMICALS
ANANTRAJ 36.65 2.23 REALTY SMLISUZU 1056 -1.81 AUTO- AUTOMOBILES AND AUTO PARTS
DEEPAKFERT 182 2.13 FERTILISERS KNRCON 710.8 -1.69 INFRA- CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MATERIALS
HONDAPOWER 1510 1.89 INFRA- MACHINERY EQUIPMENT ATUL 1995.55 -1.65 CHEMICALS
NATIONALUM 52.85 1.83 METALS AND MINING VISAKAIND 187 -1.65 CEMENT
MARKSANS 42.8 1.78 PHARMA GHCL 236.3 -1.52 CHEMICALS
HIKAL 214.65 1.71 PHARMA CENTENKA 269.65 -1.44 TEXTILES AND APPAREL
DALMIASUG 129.7 1.65 FMCG- SUGAR ESCORTS 297.4 -1.34 AUTO- AUTOMOBILES AND AUTO PARTS

Dynamic Sector Performance – 24th November 2016

Sector % Change
FOOTWEAR 3.05%
TEXTILES AND APPAREL 2.41%
FMCG- FOOD 2.00%
FMCG- PACKAGING 1.90%
METALS AND MINING 1.86%
MEDIA- ENTERTAINMENT 1.32%
IT 1.26%
FERTILISERS 1.04%
DEFENCE 0.95%
REALTY- HOUSEHOLD 0.86%
FMCG- BREVERAGES 0.79%
CHEMICALS 0.74%
BANKS-PSU 0.65%
CEMENT 0.29%
INFRA- MACHINERY EQUIPMENT 0.28%
TRANSPORTATION LOGISTICS 0.25%
DIVERSIFIED 0.10%
INFRA- CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MATERIALS 0.06%
PHARMA 0.03%
ENERGY-OIL & GAS -0.05%
AUTO-AUTO ANCL AND COMPONENTS -0.10%
AUTO- TYRES AND TUBES -0.11%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.13%
AUTO- AUTOMOBILES AND AUTO PARTS -0.16%
JEWELLERY -0.29%
REALTY -0.31%
FMCG- SUGAR -0.31%
INFRA- POWER -0.34%
FMCG -0.34%
ENTERTAINMENT-HOTELS AND LEISURE -0.36%
FINANCIAL SERVICES- NBFC -0.83%
INFRA- TELECOM -0.92%
AIRLINES -1.18%
PAPER -1.21%
BANKS-PRIVATE -1.46%
MEDIA -1.64%

Stocks near Support

Support Shares
These stocks were near support on 24th November
Script LTP Support Level Script LTP Support Level
Large Cap Stocks Small & Mid Cap Stocks
BATAINDIA 402.6 413.5 Month 1 Low GAEL 84.95 77.15 Month 1 Low
ITC 223.5 223.5 Month 1 Low 3MINDIA 11248 10994 Month 1 Low
CONCOR 1185 1120.4 Month 1 Low EVEREADY 214.5 211 Month 1 Low
MCLEODRUSS 145.2 143.8 Month 1 Low JKTYRE 113.2 109.8 Month 1 Low
BHEL 124.4 122.5 Month 1 Low EDELWEISS 90.25 87.35 Month 1 Low
CASTROLIND 384.7 379 Month 4 Low BLUEDART 4576.5 4500 Month 1 Low
EXIDEIND 171.1 168.45 Month 1 Low RIIL 345.05 336.5 Month 1 Low
MARUTI 4830 4765.3 Month 1 Low GMBREW 454 425.2 Month 1 Low
MRF 47215 46200 Month 1 Low COX&KINGS 162.35 157.6 Month 1 Low
INDUSIND 1044 1025.3 Month 6 Low AKZOINDIA 1397 1370.1 Month 1 Low

Result Calendar

SYMBOL Result Date
UFLEX 25-Nov
BATAINDIA 25-Nov
ICIL 25-Nov
SHILPAMED 25-Nov
NAVKARCORP 25-Nov
BEML 25-Nov

DISCLAIMER

Research Team – Tel: 033-30010001, write to us at [email protected] to give feedback. Website: www.dynamiclevels.com

1. The investment advice or guidance provided by way of recommendations, reports or other ways are solely the personal views of the research team. Users are advised to use the data for the purpose of information and rely on their own judgment while making investment decision
2. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

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